VA Tech Shooting

[Mach10]

Mach, you have always been anti-gun.

Anti-carry, there's a difference.

When the bad guy has a gun and the good guy has none, the bad guy wins.

I have no problem with responsible adults carrying guns. You never hear of someone pulling out a gun and shooting somebody when they have it on them with a CCW. Never. It gives those individuals a chance to defend themselves when the situation arises.

Except that it doesn't seem to work out that way. Areas that have CCW permits show more violent crime than normal. There's no return of investment, no tangible benefit. On the bad end of the scale, it seems to make things worse, and at the very best it makes no difference at all in the numbers.

So if it isn't helping, and in most cases is making things worse... The logical conclusion would be...

Criminals love it when the public does not carry guns, makes them feel safe. Britain outlawed guns outright and their crime shot up. Guess they didn't have to worry about being shot when they rob or vandalize someone.

When everyone carries, criminals get more AGGRESSIVE, they don't fade away.

Britain's crime rate is CONSISTANTLY lower (and falling) than the US--even Canada. Even before you adjust for the fact that (like Canada) our criminal code records things as crimes that the US doesn't. Canada's crime rate shows the same trend.

CANADA UK US
Robbery 86 40 140.7
Murder 2 5.3 5.6
Assault 732 520 792

These are all per 100,000 people, as of 2005. Crime overall in the UK is down 10% from last year.

I'd also like to point out that according to Statscan, less than 1/2 of assaults and robberies in Canada involved a firearm.

I feel for the families who lost someone in this. Hopefully this gets people to wake up and spot any more anti-social behavior.

Kids these days.... :uhoh:

100%.

[GT86]

Except that it doesn't seem to work out that way. Areas that have CCW permits show more violent crime than normal. There's no return of investment, no tangible benefit. On the bad end of the scale, it seems to make things worse, and at the very best it makes no difference at all in the numbers.

Since 48 states offer some form of CCW, please define what "more violent crime than normal" means. Overall, the nation's violent crime rate has dropped, according to the Bureau of Justice:
http://www.ojp.gov/bjs/glance/cv2.htm

Britain's crime rate is CONSISTANTLY lower (and falling) than the US--even Canada. Even before you adjust for the fact that (like Canada) our criminal code records things as crimes that the US doesn't. Canada's crime rate shows the same trend.

While the overall rate is falling, it appears that crime against institutions is dropping, but crime against individuals is rising. This is a link to a recent article:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/homeaffa ... 66,00.html
A quote from the article:
"The annual homicide and gun crime figures published yesterday reveal the decline of the traditional armed robbery, with raids on banks, post offices and building societies all falling sharply over the past 10 years. Alarmingly, however, this has been accompanied by a 46% rise in the use of firearms in residential robberies to 645 cases in the last year"

Also consider that through the late 90's and the early part of the 2000's, that country had the highest crime rate in the world according to some sources:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... xhome.html

[Mach10]

Since 48 states offer some form of CCW, please define what "more violent crime than normal" means. Overall, the nation's violent crime rate has dropped, according to the Bureau of Justice:
http://www.ojp.gov/bjs/glance/cv2.htm

Your article explains the dip as being representative of a change in the way information was gathered. Those numbers are based on impact surveys.

Crime IS improving in the states.

However, unless a CCW policy nationwide was implemented between 1997 and 1999, you can't seriously attribute this to firearms.

While the overall rate is falling, it appears that crime against institutions is dropping, but crime against individuals is rising. This is a link to a recent article:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/homeaffa ... 66,00.html
A quote from the article:
"The annual homicide and gun crime figures published yesterday reveal the decline of the traditional armed robbery, with raids on banks, post offices and building societies all falling sharply over the past 10 years. Alarmingly, however, this has been accompanied by a 46% rise in the use of firearms in residential robberies to 645 cases in the last year"

Also consider that through the late 90's and the early part of the 2000's, that country had the highest crime rate in the world according to some sources:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... xhome.html

For the first, ignore the percentage points for just a second and re-read that sentence.

For over 60,000,000 MILLION people in the UK, the number of fire-arm related robberies IN TOTAL up to 645 cases in 2006. NOT 645 cases per 100,000... 645 cases

I'm sure there were at least that many in LA alone!

That's 646 CASES for that massive population. Yeah, it increased from 300... Insert Kohburn's Avatar GIF right... about... here: ---> <---

For both figures, you have to understand that a direct comparison between US and the UK (and Canada too) is difficult because both of us combine assault statistics with several other crimes that are normally not recorded under US surveys.

I won't argue that the UK has problems with Crime. I've lived there, and I visit often. What I WILL argue is that they are doing just dandy without any firearms at all. Going by the logic that's been thrown out in favor of CCWs... the UK should have been a flaming torch years ago. And yet...

[GT86]

Your article explains the dip as being representative of a change in the way information was gathered. Those numbers are based on impact surveys.

Crime IS improving in the states.

However, unless a CCW policy nationwide was implemented between 1997 and 1999, you can't seriously attribute this to firearms.

I don't necessarily attribute it to firearms, but it is interesting that a drop in crime has occurred during the same period when many states began to allow their citizens to carry. Coincidence maybe? Sure, but it also disproves the idea that allowing people to carry will cause an increase in crime, as the Brady bunch has tried to claim.

For the first, ignore the percentage points for just a second and re-read that sentence.

For over 60,000,000 MILLION people in the UK, the number of fire-arm related robberies IN TOTAL up to 645 cases in 2006. NOT 645 cases per 100,000... 645 cases

I'm sure there were at least that many in LA alone!

That's 646 CASES for that massive population. Yeah, it increased from 300... Insert Kohburn's Avatar GIF right... about... here: ---> <---

For both figures, you have to understand that a direct comparison between US and the UK (and Canada too) is difficult because both of us combine assault statistics with several other crimes that are normally not recorded under US surveys.

I won't argue that the UK has problems with Crime. I've lived there, and I visit often. What I WILL argue is that they are doing just dandy without any firearms at all. Going by the logic that's been thrown out in favor of CCWs... the UK should have been a flaming torch years ago. And yet...

Regardless of the actual number, violent crime is going up in the UK. Yes, the number of incidents is low, but with Britain's strict laws, the rate should be dropping, not rising.

Perhaps a better comparison would be the ratio of the number of guns in the U.S to the number of crimes vs. the same in Britain. How many guns are in private hands here, and how many are in private hands there? It can be argued that given the amount of firearms here (most estimates state something to the effect of there is at least one gun out there for every man, woman and child), we have an astonishingly low violent crime rate. With all of the logic thrown out by gun control advocates, you figure we'd have been a flaming torch years ago. And yet... :thumbleft:

[The Dark Side of Will]

Areas that have CCW permits show more violent crime than normal.

A. Correlation != causality
B. "Areas that have CCW permits" = almost the entire country.

If you want to support that argument, show that crime is LOWER in areas WITHOUT CCW permits.

Since those areas include Washington DC and (I think) NYC, you've got some work cut out for you.

[GT86]

Areas that have CCW permits show more violent crime than normal.

A. Correlation != causality
B. "Areas that have CCW permits" = almost the entire country.

If you want to support that argument, show that crime is LOWER in areas WITHOUT CCW permits.

Since those areas include Washington DC and (I think) NYC, you've got some work cut out for you.

NYC allows concealed carry, but to get the permit you've got to have serious connections. So for the average person, forget it, there's no way to get one. Same with D.C. Interesting that those two always seem to come out at the top of the violent crime lists.

[Mach10]

Areas that have CCW permits show more violent crime than normal.

A. Correlation != causality
B. "Areas that have CCW permits" = almost the entire country.

If you want to support that argument, show that crime is LOWER in areas WITHOUT CCW permits.

Since those areas include Washington DC and (I think) NYC, you've got some work cut out for you.

Will: I already did. Our (Canada)homicide rate is almost 2/3 lower than that of the States, our robbery is lower (and less than 50% or so firearm involvement to boot) and our violent crime statistics (despite larger reporting area) are lower.

Same with the UK, although it IS interesting that despite FAR less firearm involvement, they're homicide rate is close to the US at 5.3 vs. 5.6... Lower, but really close :scratch:

If you want US-based statistics, you're going to have to wait until tommorrow. It's too busy at work right now to dig it up (full moon or something). I've seen the numbers before, but I won't trust my memory without references. If it slows down today, I'l get right on it.

In any case, my argument isn't necessarily that CCW increases crime, but that it offers NO risk/benefit improvement.

[whipped]

Would you equate CC with gun ownership in general?

In other words, say CC was legal in your area. Next day it's not, but everybody still has their guns.... they're just not on their person.

Would the crime rate go up or down?

[The Dark Side of Will]

Areas that have CCW permits show more violent crime than normal.

A. Correlation != causality
B. "Areas that have CCW permits" = almost the entire country.

If you want to support that argument, show that crime is LOWER in areas WITHOUT CCW permits.

Since those areas include Washington DC and (I think) NYC, you've got some work cut out for you.

Will: I already did. Our (Canada)

That's still apples to oranges. I think you'll find that places within the US like Washington which have extremely strict gun control laws have high crime rates. Armed home invasions in broad daylight in Washington DC are not as uncommon as you think.

[Mach10]

That's still apples to oranges. I think you'll find that places within the US like Washington which have extremely strict gun control laws have high crime rates. Armed home invasions in broad daylight in Washington DC are not as uncommon as you think.

I don't think so. Culturally, Canada and the US are pretty damn close. There isn't a whole lot about the two countries that you'll find in one, and NOT the other. But the request is reasonable I suppose.

We'll see. I've seen the numbers before. It's not as cut-and-dried as you think. I'll get back to you.

[V8Mikie]

Areas that have CCW permits show more violent crime than normal.

A. Correlation != causality
B. "Areas that have CCW permits" = almost the entire country.

If you want to support that argument, show that crime is LOWER in areas WITHOUT CCW permits.

Since those areas include Washington DC and (I think) NYC, you've got some work cut out for you.

Will: I already did. Our (Canada)

That's still apples to oranges. I think you'll find that places within the US like Washington which have extremely strict gun control laws have high crime rates. Armed home invasions in broad daylight in Washington DC are not as uncommon as you think.

Yes. I was just listening to Don and Mike and got so pissed off by their ignorance regarding guns I had to turn it off. Absolutely PATHETIC. They were talking about "Virginia has no waiting period" HELLO?!?! HE BOUGHT THE GLOCK IN MARCH MORONS.

D.C. is one of the most dangerous cities in the country. Their handgun ban hasn't changed that. Of course they like to blame neighboring Virginia for that but thats bullshit.

Guns are a part of this society, like it or not. Stricter laws won't change a damn thing. Banning guns won't change a damn thing. This mass murdering at a school is one of three in the last what, 40 years? It's sad but almost inevitable. I can't stand it how things like this bring up the gun banning debate. The guy in '66 used a hunting rifle!! Are we to ban all guns? Or selective guns? If this guy had no access to a handgun he could have easily purchased a shotgun and killed all the people he targeted not just most of them. Ban them too? Where does it end? Banning is the typical bureaucratic attempt at thye "easy way out" or the simple solution. It didn't work with alcohol, it isn't working with drugs, and it won't work with guns.

[Mach10]

I dislike what you just said...

But unfortunately I have to concur.

Once it's enculturated, it'll be almost impossible to remove.

Will: I pulled statistics for every one of your states, cross-referenced with CWW permissibility...

The result: No huge correlation... If anything, a slight bias towards the idea that CCW increases crime... .

The LOWEST crime index in the states is South Dakota which recognizes a CCW permit at 1,952 incidents per 100,000

On the other hand, the HIGHEST state crime rate is Florida at 5694 incidents per 100,000... And they have CCW too.

6/10 of the highest crime index states have CCW legislation
5/10 of the lowest crime index states have CCW.
7/10 of the highest murder/100,000 are CCW
5/20 of the lowest murder/100,000 are CCW


Interesting. :salute:

Edit: Oh, and DC is so far off the chart it's just unreal... But at 9000people per square mile, it doesn't surprise me. 2x total crime, 5x the murder rate...

DO NOT WANT!
--> to live in DC

[Indy]

I think you'll find that "gun culture" has very little to do with violent crimes. 40 years ago, my dad was open carrying his .22 rifle to school on the bus, to go rabbit hunting afterwards.

Fix the othe parts of culture, THEN we're getting somewhere.

[Mach10]

Here's the kicker...

Line up the reported gun ownership in those states and a pattern emerges.

The top 10 states with the most gun ownership have the highest overall crime rates.

Here's an XLS I threw together with DOJ stats from 2005 along with an ownership survey in 2001 by BFRSS:

[url]http://www.mts.net/~allfogg/stuff_US.xls[url]

If anyone knows of more accurate gun ownership numbers by state (preferably 2005) feel free to slot them in, or send me the link and I'll update it.

Mikie's right. Crime has NOTHING to do with CCW... But it's definitely linked to gun culture.